lineup


High on the Giants’ list of off-season priorities is fixing the infield, and Brian Sabean appears to be trying to do that.  Pablo Sandoval will play more at catcher and probably some at the infield corners (giving the team a latter-day Brenly vibe); Travis Ishikawa will get his shot at first, with perhaps Josh Phelps platooning; Emmanuel Burriss and Kevin Frandsen will get their shots at second.  Barring trading Rowand, Molina, and/or Winn — options that Sabean should entertain, even if he really means it when he says he intends to contend in a weak NL West — the real problem area is the left side of the infield.

Bringing Edgar Renteria back to the National League — not cheaply, however — has its chances of working out reasonably well.  Adding a few points of OBP and SLG by moving to the weaker league, and adding Denver and Phoenix to his frequently-visited opponents’ parks, it isn’t hard to envision July headlines touting some sort of resurgence from a player whose skill set wouldn’t really change fundamentally.  Add in that he ought to be thoroughly adequate at the plate where the Giants got nothing of the sort last season, and I can see how this ends up being a slight improvement to the team.  (The Giants will give back some of their gains from Renteria’s offense due to his declining defense.)

This still leaves third base to stock somehow.  A full season of Sandoval at third would be a bit brutal defensively, so perhaps Sabean isn’t done.  Among the aforementioned veterans, dealing Winn remains the move I’d most like to see made, in part because I’d rather see the Giants add a rightfielder with some power, whether that’s taking another spin with strong-armed Nate Shierholtz or taking a low-end risk via free agency.  Counting on Sandoval, Ishikawa and Renteria, too, that adds up to an offense that might actually be average.

Putting the Big Unit in China Basin is yet another indication that the Giants take themselves seriously.  While one year ago I would have found that laughable, I’m just maybe starting to see things from Sabean’s point of view.  The Dodgers and D’backs haven’t made the sorts of moves that convincingly elevate them past 85 wins, and while so much of the Giants’ limited success last season depended on happy accidents in their record in one-run ballgames (going 31-21), there’s some reason to take them just abuot as seriously.  They’re not the team that fielded an almost entirely putrid lineup last April, they’re the one we saw in September, the one that had a few interesting prospects on the field.  The team needed help in the bullpen, and Sabean’s tried to scare some up.  The team needed a plausible regular at short, and whatever else you may say about him, Edgar Renteria is exactly that.  The team still needs some power in the lineup, which is why we keep hearing Manny Ramirez rumors, though the shame of that would be how it might suck playing time away from Fred Lewis, one of their better hitters, but if Lewis in turn reduces Randy Winn to a less-regular starter, even that could turn out well.  I admit, I’d be a little more enthusiastic if they came up with a power-hitting third baseman who lets them relegate Pablo Sandoval to sharing playing time at first with Travis Ishikawa and behind the plate with Benjie Moliina, but we’ll see if Joe Crede proves himself healthy enough to engender any interest in his coming workout.

So, put Randy Johnson onto that sort of team in this sort of division, and yeah, I like it well enough.  He’ll get his 300th win as a Giant.  (He’s just five away.)  He should be effective enough, he saves Team Sabean from having to count too heavily on Noah Lowry to round out the rotation, and I guess there’s something sort of amusing about having someone who reduces Barry Zito to not merely an expensive mistake, but the most expensive fifth starter ever in human history.

I tuned into the Giants game on April 7 and April 12 and each time was confronted with a scene that, I believe, provides a foretelling of the San Francisco season in microcosm. There was Matt Cain, struggling away in the fifth inning of a 0-0 game. (In the game on April 12, Matt actually had a no-hitter through five innings.) Better get used to those goose eggs, Matt–a year of non-support from your teammates is your lot.

Through 19 games, the Giants have scored 61 runs, least in the National League. When a team’s cleanup hitter is Bengie Molina, a 33-year-old catcher with a career .410 slugging average, isn’t it hard imagining them scoring even 500 times this season? That’s much too extreme, of course. It’s been ages (36 years, actually) since a team scored way down in the low threes–or under–per game. In 1972, one National and four American League teams were under 500 runs. (You see why the designated hitter came about?) Without starving to that extent, the Giants do seem like a good bet to break into this list of modern era clubs that have scored the fewest runs:

Lowest runs per game since 1996
3.54: 2003 Dodgers (574 runs scored)
3.57: 2002 Tigers (575)
3.65: 2003 Tigers (591)
3.80: 2004 Diamondbacks (615)
3.83: 1998 Devil Rays (620)
3.87: 2002 Brewers (627)
3.92-3.99: Eight teams (634 to 650)

San Francisco right now is scoring runs at a rate of 3.21 per game, which puts them at the top (bottom?) of this list. If AT&T Park were no longer almost neutral and suddenly started playing like the pitcher’s haven it was during its PacBell infancy, then we could almost guarantee a Giants appearance on this list. While I loathe extracting too much from a season’s first three weeks, the Giants so far are certainly fulfilling everyone’s fears of a season of offensive deprivation. Scoring zero runs (they’ve done it twice), one run (three times), or two runs (four times) is bound to be the rule and not the exception.

The Giants have a host of problems that could lead them to a franchise record for losses (previous mark: 100, set in 1985) this year. They cannot score, their aging defense will allow many extra hits, and outside of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, they don’t have the pitching to work around these issues.

What we’ve learned during this first homestand is that they aren’t going to win many games from the dugout and coaching boxes, either. Bruce Bochy, whose tactical failings were a common complaint of Padres fans during his time in San Diego, has made the kind of small moves –- the wrong ones -– that shows a lack of understanding of how to manage your 25 pieces in a way that gives your team the best chance to win a baseball game. (more…)

Oh my God! Pedro Feliz (.254/.286/.455) is hitting third in the Giants’ order today (Saturday) in Oakland!!! Doesn’t that say it all about our “solid” lineup?

I keep saying to myself it is only a week into the season, and I remind myself not to come to conclusions based on small sample sizes, but so far, the Giants are playing to form, showing sometimes excellent starting pitching, but some atrocious “hitting.”  Certain numbers say it  all:  the team is 29th out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored though Sunday, with 14.  (Seattle, at number 30 with 12 runs, is forgiven since they’ve had four games postponed due to snow!)  The team on-base percentage is .307, 22nd in MLB.  Team slugging is .330, good for 28th in MLB.  They have yet to hit a sacrifice fly.

I went to the game Saturday against the Dodgers, the one where Russ Ortiz actually kept our heroes in the game for five innings, and the Giants lineup hacked away at anything Derek Lowe threw their way. Admittedly, Lowe is an extreme groundball pitcher, perhaps the most extreme such in the majors, with a sinker that is deadly when he is on.  Yet the Giants seemed eager to help Lowe out, swinging early in the count, and swinging at some bad pitches too.  (The Giants are saying all the usual things about “trying to make something happen.”)  Lowe got three outs in one inning on six pitches, and by the end of the sixth, had only thrown 70 pitches.  This aggressiveness at the plate, so prized by Dusty Baker and Felipe Alou, is disastrous for any team trying to score runs.  I hope it is a blip on the season, and not Bochy’s conscious effort to mimic his predecessors.

Aggressiveness has shown up on the basepaths, too.  The Giants through Sunday are four-for-six in stolen-base attempts, which is not at the 75% success rate most analysts consider the minimum necessary to make steal attempts worthwhile for the team.  In Friday night’s 2-1 loss to the Dodgers (do Giant pitchers fear that giving up any runs means a loss for the team?), catcher Russ Martin threw out Omar Vizquel trying to steal second in the first inning, emptying the bases for Barry Bonds.  An inning later, Martin caught Ray Durham on a 3-2 pitch to Ryan Klesko with no one out.  Klesko struck out to make it a double play.  Pedro Feliz got thrown out at the plate trying to make it home from first on a Randy Winn double in the fifth inning.  There were, at the time, no outs.  Earl Weaver spins in his grave over first outs made at the plate.

Andre Ethier plays the outfield for the Dodgers.  He’s young and costs little to employ.  He might be a better hitter than any Giant except Durham and a healthy Bonds.  He is being platooned and hit seventh in the Bums’ lineup on Saturday.  James Loney, a better-hitting first baseman than any of the hydra-headed entity the Giants have at that position, rides the pine behind Nomar Garciaparra.  Any chance the Giants could con Ned Colletti into making like his mentor and trading a quality young prospect for some aged guys in steep decline?  Just a thought.

We read in today’s Chronicle that Bochy is frustrated he cannot play all his regulars at this point of spring, ten days before opening day. Aurelia (groin strain), Roberts (strained clavicle joint) and Durham (hamstring strain) are out, and Bonds and Molina need periodic days off. While Durham might play today, Roberts is out until at least Monday and Aurelia will miss about a week. This is another sign that the Giants will, as in years past, deal with the severe downside of having a “proven” lineup.

It isn’t just that this iteration of the Giants is unusually old; the 21st-century Giants franchise is well-represented on the list of oldest teams in major-league history:

Average Age of Team Roster, Weighted by Plate Appearances

1 2006 San Francisco 34.53

2. 1998 Baltimore 33.32

3. 1999 Baltimore 32.56

4. 1982 California 32.46

5. 1985 California 32.44

6. 2005 San Francisco 32.43

7. 1945 Detroit 32.42

8. 2002 San Francisco 32.30

9. 2003 San Francisco 32.30

10. 2005 New York (AL) 32.24

Beyond this top ten, the 2004 Giants currently rank 21st on the all-time list, and the 2001 team is 25th. And notice that last year’s team holds first place by a mile over the ‘98 Orioles.

Given the Giants’ moves this off-season, it does not appear that Sabean considers age to be a significant problem. The Giants will basically field last season’s team — Durham (35 in 2007), Vizquel (40), Feliz (32), Bonds (42) and Winn (33) are a year older. Alfonzo (27 in 2006) is replaced by Molina (32 in 2007) , Hillenbrand (30) by Aurelia (35), Niekro (27) by Klesko (36). They do get younger in center, replacing Finley (41) with Roberts (35).

The Giants’ shot at success this year depends on the old hitters taking their Geritol regularly and not falling apart. While Barry Bonds remains a force in the lineup — health and the U.S. Justice Department permitting — no one else provides any serious punch. The Giants were tenth in the league in runs scored last year, and there is no reason to believe the 2007 squad will do any better. If they lose Bonds for any reason, their offense will be anemic.