No One Knows

Some assume that the reason Joe Crede is not today a Giant is that Brian Sabean didn’t match or try to match the Twins’ offer.  What they miss, though, is that Sabean could have done so, and Crede still might have chosen to sign elsewhere.  It’s not my job to defend Sabean, since much of what he’s done in recent years is pretty indefensible, but Sabean is not the only one making the decision about where Joe Crede plays baseball.

I know that in my own career, I’ve made decisions about what job to take or not take based on money, or on my marriage, or on medical benefits for my kids, or on long-term goals, or on my daily satisfaction with the work, or on the “culture” of the office.  The only person who might have grasped all these factors, or how they balanced, was my wife.

Now we hear and read a lot about similar decisions made by talented ballplayers.  We speculate that this guy followed the money, or the other guy went to a team in the region where he was raised.  We’ll assume that the agent actually makes the decision, or that the player picked the team because he hits well in their home park.

But at the end of the day, we have no idea what we’re talking about.  That’s because the decision about where to play, like our own decisions on where to work, is an intensely personal one that considers factors we cannot know.  Baseball players are like the rest of us.  They have wives and families, they like big cities or small towns, warm weather or cold, golfing or surfing.

For Crede, to take one example, this was the first time in his professional life he’d been able to negotiate anything other than his salary (and he hadn’t even had that opportunity much).  He was 18 when the White Sox selected him in the fifth round of the 1996 draft, and now, more than twelve years later, he’s been able to choose his employer, the city where he’ll work, and presumably, live and raise his family.  He’s never had that choice or one like it before, and as to his motives in selecting the Twins, let’s face it, we’re all just guessing.  Like a lot about baseball, and a lot about life, this is one where no one knows anything.

 

Catching Up On Transactions

High on the Giants’ list of off-season priorities is fixing the infield, and Brian Sabean appears to be trying to do that.  Pablo Sandoval will play more at catcher and probably some at the infield corners (giving the team a latter-day Brenly vibe); Travis Ishikawa will get his shot at first, with perhaps Josh Phelps platooning; Emmanuel Burriss and Kevin Frandsen will get their shots at second.  Barring trading Rowand, Molina, and/or Winn — options that Sabean should entertain, even if he really means it when he says he intends to contend in a weak NL West — the real problem area is the left side of the infield.

Bringing Edgar Renteria back to the National League — not cheaply, however — has its chances of working out reasonably well.  Adding a few points of OBP and SLG by moving to the weaker league, and adding Denver and Phoenix to his frequently-visited opponents’ parks, it isn’t hard to envision July headlines touting some sort of resurgence from a player whose skill set wouldn’t really change fundamentally.  Add in that he ought to be thoroughly adequate at the plate where the Giants got nothing of the sort last season, and I can see how this ends up being a slight improvement to the team.  (The Giants will give back some of their gains from Renteria’s offense due to his declining defense.)

This still leaves third base to stock somehow.  A full season of Sandoval at third would be a bit brutal defensively, so perhaps Sabean isn’t done.  Among the aforementioned veterans, dealing Winn remains the move I’d most like to see made, in part because I’d rather see the Giants add a rightfielder with some power, whether that’s taking another spin with strong-armed Nate Shierholtz or taking a low-end risk via free agency.  Counting on Sandoval, Ishikawa and Renteria, too, that adds up to an offense that might actually be average.

Putting the Big Unit in China Basin is yet another indication that the Giants take themselves seriously.  While one year ago I would have found that laughable, I’m just maybe starting to see things from Sabean’s point of view.  The Dodgers and D’backs haven’t made the sorts of moves that convincingly elevate them past 85 wins, and while so much of the Giants’ limited success last season depended on happy accidents in their record in one-run ballgames (going 31-21), there’s some reason to take them just abuot as seriously.  They’re not the team that fielded an almost entirely putrid lineup last April, they’re the one we saw in September, the one that had a few interesting prospects on the field.  The team needed help in the bullpen, and Sabean’s tried to scare some up.  The team needed a plausible regular at short, and whatever else you may say about him, Edgar Renteria is exactly that.  The team still needs some power in the lineup, which is why we keep hearing Manny Ramirez rumors, though the shame of that would be how it might suck playing time away from Fred Lewis, one of their better hitters, but if Lewis in turn reduces Randy Winn to a less-regular starter, even that could turn out well.  I admit, I’d be a little more enthusiastic if they came up with a power-hitting third baseman who lets them relegate Pablo Sandoval to sharing playing time at first with Travis Ishikawa and behind the plate with Benjie Moliina, but we’ll see if Joe Crede proves himself healthy enough to engender any interest in his coming workout.

So, put Randy Johnson onto that sort of team in this sort of division, and yeah, I like it well enough.  He’ll get his 300th win as a Giant.  (He’s just five away.)  He should be effective enough, he saves Team Sabean from having to count too heavily on Noah Lowry to round out the rotation, and I guess there’s something sort of amusing about having someone who reduces Barry Zito to not merely an expensive mistake, but the most expensive fifth starter ever in human history.

 

Our Competition Is On the Ball

While everyone focuses on where next Manny will be Manny, let’s take a second to look at what one of the Giants’ division rivals did right recently.  The Padres signed Chris Britton to a minor-league deal.  Taking Britton, who has the skill set of a good set-up reliever, and putting him in Petco Park, is like finding money.  Two years ago the Padres picked up Heath Bell from the Mets, basically for free, and Bell has 173 strikeouts in 171 2/3 innings as their eighth-inning guy.  With Bell set to become the closer, Britton could well play Bell to his Hoffman for the next two seasons.  Just consider Britton’s work at the highest levels:

Level      IP    ERA    K/9   K/BB   HR/9

AA       16.0   2.81  13.50    4.0   0.00

AAA      85.0   2.44   8.89    4.2   0.53

MLB      89.1   3.83   5.84    2.1   1.01

I would submit that his MLB line doesn’t do him justice, as his 2008 season was spent being jerked around by the Yankees – he was sent down and recalled on the same day – twice – and went one 18-day stretch throwing only 2 2/3 innings . He had more demotions to the minors (three) than he had major-league appearances (two) in May.  His stint on the DL was for a strained ribcage he no doubt incurred packing and unpacking.  So I don’t judge the guy on his major-league performance with that kind of travel schedule.  Britton will throw 70 above-average innings for the Padres, innings that will look statistically stunning given the run context of their home park.

Relief pitching is cheap and readily available to the team that chooses to look for it.

 

November Transactions Aren’t Turkeys

Last month, the Giants made three little moves, for differing price tags, that I actually like. On November 1, they signed right-handed pitcher Justin Miller to a minor league contract with a spring training non-roster invitation (NRI). I like Miller for more than his status as baseball’s answer to Dennis Rodman. The game’s great illustrated man has his uses as a righty specialist, so if he earns his keep in camp and gets a shot at situational stardom, I don’t see the harm. Who knows, San Francisco may be exactly the place for a man with as much ink as Miller to get props and a fan club.

First baseman Josh Phelps, signed on November 3 to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI, has been a massive disappointment, a rival with Andy Marte for the title of most-wasted-draft-choice of more than a few of my fantasy teams, but if he makes it as a platoon partner for Travis Ishikawa, that’s not so terrible. If that doesn’t work, he’s going to make some kids in Fresno very happy by launching a few souvenirs, and nothing’s wrong with keeping an affiliate happy, is there?

But it’s Jeremy Affeldt who is the big deal, because he’s here for the big bucks. ($8 million over two years.) It’s not really complicated. It’s a good deal and a reasonable price, a pickup of a lefty reliever with heat who can pitch against anybody, not just in some matchup-minded Tony LaRussa wet dream, and now that he’s liberated from the GAP in Cincinnati, his strong ground-ball tendencies should choke the life out of opposing offenses with that much less concern that a mistake up in the zone becomes instant runs on the scoreboard. Away from the Rhineland, Affeldt held major-league hitters to .203/.271/.305 and a 1.77 ERA, against .302/.362/.488 (and seven of his nine homers allowed). His 2007 stint with the Rockies aside, he’s had to spend most of his career playing for lousy teams in bad venues, and while the Giants aren’t a good team, he’ll at least have a beautiful place to play, and he’s making a pretty penny or two. I really anticipate that these next two years could set him up for a really big score on the market after 2010, when somebody’s going to have the good sense to make him the new Dave Righetti. As is, if you had me picking between Affeldt and Brian Wilson to nail down close ballgames, I’d prefer Affeldt, but if this means that Affeldt makes sure those leads still exist after the seventh and eighth innings, and Wilson gets the glory stats until arbitration or good sense puts him someplace else, that works.

 

What the Giants Could Learn from the Rockies

Colorado’s capture of the National League pennant last season made it the best season in the organization’s existence. One of the accompanying narratives was that they were learning how to win in Coors Field. Another was the declining park factor in Colorado had allowed for a more stable pitching staff. While there is some truth to these, for me the Rockies are more than the product of an evolving ballpark-related dynamic. Rather, they are a perfect case study in proper player development.

 

A Roster Suggestion (The First of Many, No Doubt)

At least twice a week, my colleague Ed comes into my office bemoaning the Giants’ refusal to claim yet another guy placed on waivers by some club with actual talent on their roster. Ed’s right that the Giants don’t take advantage of the free talent that’s out there for the taking. This is all the more damaging to the Giants since some of that freely available talent is better than most of what the Giants have on their roster.

In what may be a never-ending series of suggestions of ways the Brian Sabean could improve the ballclub, I present Matt Murton. He lost his spot on the Cubs when they signed Reed Johnson (also someone the Giants could have looked at), and today they announced they’re not even going to carry Murton as a reserve. He simply needs a new organization, and like Johnson, he brings a perfect package of skills to the table in terms of what the Giants should be looking for in an outfielder; right-handed, gap power, lefty masher, solid to plus defender in a corner OF. Toss in the fact that Murton is just 26 years old and has only two years of service time, and he’s the kind of player who could help the team both in 2008 and beyond. With players like Murton available, the Giants simply shouldn’t settle for their internal candidates for the fourth OF job — that includes Dave Roberts — they can do better. While Murton is not exactly free talent (he’s not out of options, and the Cubs announced Thursday that they will send him to their AAA affiliate if they cannot trade him), the Giants should certainly be willing to include one of their current outfielders in a package that nets them Murton. I’m willing to bet that Murton, wherever he goes, will put up a better OPS in 2008 than any of the Giants’ outfielders.

 

Recent Transactions

The Giants may be in last place, but these latest exchanges certainly have promise. Getting Dave Roberts back certainly makes it a little easier in the outfield, as well as the lineup on paper, as Bochy will undoubtedly slot him back in the leadoff role. Doesn’t look as if they’ll kick his leadoff replacement, Randy Winn, back down to the eighth slot, considering that he’s produced while Omar Vizquel and Pedro Feliz have not. The more speculative situation is what Schierholtz is up to do. Is he merely manning the fourth slot until Fred Lewis is again healthy? Is his hot start (.347/.347/.518) a meaningful development, or another Fresno fiction? Will he adapt to the routine of spot starts for Barry Bonds and a lot of wool-gathering on the bench, or will that undermine his prospects as much as it seemed to for Todd Linden?

More interesting are the changes to the bullpen. I’d rather have Messenger than Benitez for the rest of their active careers, while swapping out Russ Ortiz for Jonathan Sanchez adds yet another quality arm to the Giants’ relief options. I’m not a big believer that Brad Hennessey is going to hold down the closer’s job, which makes it possible that anybody could step up and claim it — including Sanchez and Messenger. I’m particularly intrigued by the idea that Sanchez might have the stuff for it, perhaps in a way akin to how Adam Wainwright and Jonathan Papelbon did, with just as much possibility that he either sticks in the role or eventually moves back to rotation work. What should be clear is that he’s too good to sequester in situational duties; lefties who throw consistently in the low 90s, and who supplement it with a plus change, simply don’t grow on trees. It’ll be interesting to see how Bochy sorts through his options.