A Tip of the Cap to Jeff Kent

It was a bit unsettling to see Jeff Kent’s notoriously gruff facade crumble during the press conference in which he announced his retirement last month.  Kent had always struck me as akin to another Giant, Bill Terry, a player who spent the better part of two decades making it clear that he did not love the game of baseball, but, realizing his talent was exceptional, found the game the best way to make a buck.  Just as Terry would have been content to serve as an executive for Standard Oil had they paid him more than did Charles Stoneham, so Kent would have worked his Texas ranch had punching cows paid more than did the major leagues.  Thus the sight of him fighting back tears was surprising, and, to me, affecting.

Less than two months shy of his 41st birthday, there’s little doubt it was time for Kent to say goodbye.  He hit .280/.327/.418 for the Dodgers in 2008, with just 12 homers, his lowest total since 1996.  He missed most of the final month of the season due to a torn meniscus that required surgery; though he rehabbed doggedly and made the Dodgers’ post-season roster, he was confined to the bench while Blake DeWitt took over at second base.  A future as a part-time player was unthinkable for Kent, who had once declared, upon being sidelined by a more minor injury, “I hate watching baseball.”

While Kent hasn’t received many fond farewells, the widespread consensus in the mainstream media is that he’s bound for the Hall of Fame.  From a traditional perspective, it’s not difficult to see why.  Although he didn’t debut in the majors until he was 24 and didn’t top 400 plate appearances until the following year, Kent nonetheless racked up 2,461 hits and 377 homers, reached the postseason seven times, made five All-Star teams, and won the 2000 NL MVP award.  The 351 home runs he hit as a second baseman are tops for the position, far outdistancing the second-, third-, and fourth-ranked second-sackers — Ryne Sandberg (277), Joe Morgan (266), and Rogers Hornsby (263) — all of whom are enshrined in Cooperstown.  He also leads all second basemen in RBI and extra-base hits, while ranking 12th in games played.

If Kent’s case for Cooperstown appears on firm footing from a traditional standpoint, it’s on shakier ground sabermetrically.  As odd as it sounds for a player who lasted through his age-40 season, he’s hampered by a lack of durability.  Kent topped 145 games just five times (including 2002, the season he infamously broke his wrist while “washing his truck“) and averaged only 133 games a hear over his last six seasons, the Houston/Los Angeles phase of his career.  By some sabermetric measures, he tops only one of the nine second basemen elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America, that being Jackie Robinson, whose career was shortened by the color barrier but who nonetheless had a peak that was well above average, to say nothing of his monumentally large role in history.

It won’t get much better for Kent, either.  By the time he actually reaches the 2014 ballot in the company of Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina, both Craig Biggio and Roberto Alomar will likely be enshrined.  The former is a lock given his 3,060 hits, while the latter’s round-number combination of a .300 lifetime batting average and 10 Gold Gloves probably put him into the no-brainer category of many voters.  All these factors may mean Kent doesn’t get in the first year he appears on the ballot.

Kent was a good player for a long time, and an often misunderstood one.  His lack of charisma and his businesslike approach made him an easy target, but he was passionate in his work ethic and respect for the game.  The more I look at his numbers the more I realize he’s actually a borderline Hall of Famer.  (Unless one attaches special importance to his leading his position in homers, which has much to do with his era, it’s difficult to draw the conclusion that he’s an elite or even average Hall-of-Fame second baseman.)  Nonetheless, were I a voter, I can’t help but suspect my own memories of his high level of play with the Giants would sway me into making him a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

 

Catching Up On Transactions

High on the Giants’ list of off-season priorities is fixing the infield, and Brian Sabean appears to be trying to do that.  Pablo Sandoval will play more at catcher and probably some at the infield corners (giving the team a latter-day Brenly vibe); Travis Ishikawa will get his shot at first, with perhaps Josh Phelps platooning; Emmanuel Burriss and Kevin Frandsen will get their shots at second.  Barring trading Rowand, Molina, and/or Winn — options that Sabean should entertain, even if he really means it when he says he intends to contend in a weak NL West — the real problem area is the left side of the infield.

Bringing Edgar Renteria back to the National League — not cheaply, however — has its chances of working out reasonably well.  Adding a few points of OBP and SLG by moving to the weaker league, and adding Denver and Phoenix to his frequently-visited opponents’ parks, it isn’t hard to envision July headlines touting some sort of resurgence from a player whose skill set wouldn’t really change fundamentally.  Add in that he ought to be thoroughly adequate at the plate where the Giants got nothing of the sort last season, and I can see how this ends up being a slight improvement to the team.  (The Giants will give back some of their gains from Renteria’s offense due to his declining defense.)

This still leaves third base to stock somehow.  A full season of Sandoval at third would be a bit brutal defensively, so perhaps Sabean isn’t done.  Among the aforementioned veterans, dealing Winn remains the move I’d most like to see made, in part because I’d rather see the Giants add a rightfielder with some power, whether that’s taking another spin with strong-armed Nate Shierholtz or taking a low-end risk via free agency.  Counting on Sandoval, Ishikawa and Renteria, too, that adds up to an offense that might actually be average.

Putting the Big Unit in China Basin is yet another indication that the Giants take themselves seriously.  While one year ago I would have found that laughable, I’m just maybe starting to see things from Sabean’s point of view.  The Dodgers and D’backs haven’t made the sorts of moves that convincingly elevate them past 85 wins, and while so much of the Giants’ limited success last season depended on happy accidents in their record in one-run ballgames (going 31-21), there’s some reason to take them just abuot as seriously.  They’re not the team that fielded an almost entirely putrid lineup last April, they’re the one we saw in September, the one that had a few interesting prospects on the field.  The team needed help in the bullpen, and Sabean’s tried to scare some up.  The team needed a plausible regular at short, and whatever else you may say about him, Edgar Renteria is exactly that.  The team still needs some power in the lineup, which is why we keep hearing Manny Ramirez rumors, though the shame of that would be how it might suck playing time away from Fred Lewis, one of their better hitters, but if Lewis in turn reduces Randy Winn to a less-regular starter, even that could turn out well.  I admit, I’d be a little more enthusiastic if they came up with a power-hitting third baseman who lets them relegate Pablo Sandoval to sharing playing time at first with Travis Ishikawa and behind the plate with Benjie Moliina, but we’ll see if Joe Crede proves himself healthy enough to engender any interest in his coming workout.

So, put Randy Johnson onto that sort of team in this sort of division, and yeah, I like it well enough.  He’ll get his 300th win as a Giant.  (He’s just five away.)  He should be effective enough, he saves Team Sabean from having to count too heavily on Noah Lowry to round out the rotation, and I guess there’s something sort of amusing about having someone who reduces Barry Zito to not merely an expensive mistake, but the most expensive fifth starter ever in human history.

 

Cuban on the Cubs Sale

Pretty interesting read.  The highlight for me:

I had no intentions of trying to outspend the Yankees or Red Sox.  There was no reason to. I didnt have to beat either of those teams unless I made it to the World Series. The only teams I had to be better than were those in the National League, and more importantly, those in my division.  There were no big spending rivals close to home, so the AL East could spend themselves silly. My plans were to spend to win, not to spend for spending’s sake.  IMHO, the money I could save being in the 2nd tier of payroll could be invested in scouting and development. I made this clear to any and all of the owners that I spoke to across the league. Of course that didnt stop some from trying to convince some owners otherwise.

What Cuban’s writing about is diminishing returns.  As teams prove time and again, there is only so much you need to spend to compete — and win — in major league baseball.

 

Our Competition Is On the Ball

While everyone focuses on where next Manny will be Manny, let’s take a second to look at what one of the Giants’ division rivals did right recently.  The Padres signed Chris Britton to a minor-league deal.  Taking Britton, who has the skill set of a good set-up reliever, and putting him in Petco Park, is like finding money.  Two years ago the Padres picked up Heath Bell from the Mets, basically for free, and Bell has 173 strikeouts in 171 2/3 innings as their eighth-inning guy.  With Bell set to become the closer, Britton could well play Bell to his Hoffman for the next two seasons.  Just consider Britton’s work at the highest levels:

Level      IP    ERA    K/9   K/BB   HR/9

AA       16.0   2.81  13.50    4.0   0.00

AAA      85.0   2.44   8.89    4.2   0.53

MLB      89.1   3.83   5.84    2.1   1.01

I would submit that his MLB line doesn’t do him justice, as his 2008 season was spent being jerked around by the Yankees – he was sent down and recalled on the same day – twice – and went one 18-day stretch throwing only 2 2/3 innings . He had more demotions to the minors (three) than he had major-league appearances (two) in May.  His stint on the DL was for a strained ribcage he no doubt incurred packing and unpacking.  So I don’t judge the guy on his major-league performance with that kind of travel schedule.  Britton will throw 70 above-average innings for the Padres, innings that will look statistically stunning given the run context of their home park.

Relief pitching is cheap and readily available to the team that chooses to look for it.

 

November Transactions Aren’t Turkeys

Last month, the Giants made three little moves, for differing price tags, that I actually like. On November 1, they signed right-handed pitcher Justin Miller to a minor league contract with a spring training non-roster invitation (NRI). I like Miller for more than his status as baseball’s answer to Dennis Rodman. The game’s great illustrated man has his uses as a righty specialist, so if he earns his keep in camp and gets a shot at situational stardom, I don’t see the harm. Who knows, San Francisco may be exactly the place for a man with as much ink as Miller to get props and a fan club.

First baseman Josh Phelps, signed on November 3 to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI, has been a massive disappointment, a rival with Andy Marte for the title of most-wasted-draft-choice of more than a few of my fantasy teams, but if he makes it as a platoon partner for Travis Ishikawa, that’s not so terrible. If that doesn’t work, he’s going to make some kids in Fresno very happy by launching a few souvenirs, and nothing’s wrong with keeping an affiliate happy, is there?

But it’s Jeremy Affeldt who is the big deal, because he’s here for the big bucks. ($8 million over two years.) It’s not really complicated. It’s a good deal and a reasonable price, a pickup of a lefty reliever with heat who can pitch against anybody, not just in some matchup-minded Tony LaRussa wet dream, and now that he’s liberated from the GAP in Cincinnati, his strong ground-ball tendencies should choke the life out of opposing offenses with that much less concern that a mistake up in the zone becomes instant runs on the scoreboard. Away from the Rhineland, Affeldt held major-league hitters to .203/.271/.305 and a 1.77 ERA, against .302/.362/.488 (and seven of his nine homers allowed). His 2007 stint with the Rockies aside, he’s had to spend most of his career playing for lousy teams in bad venues, and while the Giants aren’t a good team, he’ll at least have a beautiful place to play, and he’s making a pretty penny or two. I really anticipate that these next two years could set him up for a really big score on the market after 2010, when somebody’s going to have the good sense to make him the new Dave Righetti. As is, if you had me picking between Affeldt and Brian Wilson to nail down close ballgames, I’d prefer Affeldt, but if this means that Affeldt makes sure those leads still exist after the seventh and eighth innings, and Wilson gets the glory stats until arbitration or good sense puts him someplace else, that works.

 

Overachievers, Yes; “Excellent,” No

Bruce Jenkins was at it again in the Chron today, writing about Billy Beane’s guts and “desperation” as he works to build a team to compete against the Los Angeles Angels, “baseball’s model of excellence, surpassing the Red Sox and leaving the Yankees in a little pile of dust.” I don’t know what criteria Jenkins uses to judge excellence, but he certainly doesn’t look at the numbers.

With a .622 winning percentage through Monday, the Angels are on a pace for 100 wins, the traditional mark for excellence in teams. They lead the American League West by 22 games with six games to go.

But the Angels, despite having baseball’s best record, aren’t nearly as good a team as they appear to be, because as strong as the Angels’ record is, it reflects too generously on a team that has had a great deal of luck.

 

Giants Have Had It Harder Than Most

Given the relative success so far this season of teams like the Marlins and Cardinals, whom I had not expected to do well, I was curious as to whether strength or weakness of schedule had helped or hurt teams so far this season.  Using Baseball Prospectus’s adjusted standings page, and specifically BP’s stats for Equivalent Runs, Equivalent Runs Allowed, and the adjusted sets of those numbers (see the notes on the BP page and their glossary for the math), we can indeed determine which teams in baseball have had the toughest and easiest schedules through games of yesterday, May 5:

Toughest                         Easiest

Rockies                            Cardinals

Nationals                         Cubs

Pirates                             Phillies

Giants                             Marlins

Reds                                Braves

We can immediately see from this that the AL has a lot more parity right now, with five NL teams having tougher schedules than any AL team (toughest schedule so far in the AL is Tampa Bay), and six NL teams having an easier schedule than the AL’s easiest (the Angels).  Given what we know about the teams other than their records and schedules, it’s fair to say the Marlins are a sandcastle, and the Cards’ position is not sustainable.  The Giants have had a tough stretch of their schedule, and perhaps that is reason to hope that their winning percentage, better than I for one expected it to be at this point, can actually be sustained.  (Of course, it would still mean 90 losses.)

Remember, it’s only been 30-odd games, and so small-sample-size caveats apply.

 

Building a Team

Yesterday I attended a meeting of the Lefty O’Doul chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), held at the George Krevsky Gallery on Geary Street in San Francisco. George — both charming and a great baseball fan — and his staff put together an annual show of art depicting baseball. This year’s exhibition, “Building a Team,” runs through June 7. Check it out if you can; the show is full of evocative works.

 

What the Giants Could Learn from the Rockies

Colorado’s capture of the National League pennant last season made it the best season in the organization’s existence. One of the accompanying narratives was that they were learning how to win in Coors Field. Another was the declining park factor in Colorado had allowed for a more stable pitching staff. While there is some truth to these, for me the Rockies are more than the product of an evolving ballpark-related dynamic. Rather, they are a perfect case study in proper player development.

 

Keeping Perspective on PEDs

We have word today that Eliezer Alfonzo, who was the Giants’ backup catcher in 2006-07, and is currently a Fresno Grizzly, has tested positive for a banned substance and been suspended for 50 days.  I still think that when all is said and done, most PED users will turn out to be the Marvin Benards and Eliezer Alfonzos of the game, rather than the Barry Bondses and Mark McGwires.  It’s these AAAA guys, on the bubble between AAA and the majors, who have more incentive to seek any edge, including PEDs.  I also wonder whether to date more pitchers haven’t tested positive, which also puts Bonds and McGwire in some perspective.  Many want to “asterisk” the sluggers’ hitting numbers without thinking about how many juiced pitchers those sluggers were facing.

This same rush to judgment came up recently when Miguel Tejada was implicated in the Mitchell report.  Folks told me knowingly that this explained his drop-off in production over the past couple of years:  Once he got off the juice, his slugging fell.  I pointed out, remembering the rumors swirling around Tejada since he was signed by the Athletics, that it could be the result of aging, and a not-unexpected drop-off linked to that.  Now we know Tejada is 33, not 31.

Fans, and particularly the major media covering the game, need to acknowledge that we don’t know exactly how and to what extent steroids or testosterone or human growth hormone effect the performance of ball players.  Keeping our perspective, allowing for what we don’t know, can lead to more informed and reasoned discussions and solutions based on facts rather than conjecture or assumption.